(2008) has used the SST anomalies from the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans to predict the MAM rainfall. Occasionally, transmission of malaria occurs in areas previously free of malaria, including areas > 2,000 m above sea level. If you're planning on visiting the Omo River Region, be prepared for very hot temperatures. JAS rainfall over CW-Ethiopia is negatively associated with SSTs over the equatorial east Pacific and Indian Ocean. In the far south, far west and far east of the country, averagedaily temperatures often exceed 85 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius). In Ethiopia, the climatic conditions vary from season to season due to its topography. During Belg (DecemberFebruary), the ITCZ is located well south of Ethiopia and the country predominantly falls under the influence of dry warm and cool northeasterly winds. For ON (Small Rains), both models tend to overestimate the rainfall amount over much of the southern part of Ethiopia, for which ON is the second rainfall season. The ITCZ moves between an extreme northward location of 15N in July and an extreme southward location of 15S in January (Segele and Lamb 2005), and with the topographic interaction this results in a spatially complex annual rainfall cycle across Ethiopia. 4.4. Rainfall variability in Ethiopia has significant effects on rainfed agriculture and hydropower, so understanding its association with slowly varying global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is potentially important for prediction purposes. Both maximum and minimum temperatures showed an increasing trend; the increase in mean maximum temperature ranges between 1.55C and 6.07C and that of the mean minimum temperature ranges from 0.11C and 2.81C. Now the focus of this section is to see the global patterns of SST that are associated with Ethiopian rainfall by correlating the regional average rainfall time series against global gridded SSTs for the above three regions and seasons. Climate projections for Ethiopia are presented in Box 1. However, in reality, each area has its own rainfall patterns. Rain falls infrequently in this area, although the river itself serves to keep the land fertile even at the height of the dry season. The first type is composed of euritic nitosols and andosols and is found on portions of the Western and Eastern highlands. Firstly, a preliminary subdivision . The OctoberNovember (hereafter ON) period is also known as the Small Rains, except usually with the inclusion of September in southern Ethiopia (Degefu and Bewket 2014) or the inclusion of December elsewhere in equatorial east Africa (Black et al. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0837-8, Diro GT, Grimes DIF, Black E (2011b) Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part II. For the, indicates a mean annual temperature increase of 0.28, hot days and a decrease of cold days. 2006; Saji and Yamagata 2003) show that anomalous warming (cooling) over the equatorial East Pacific and Indian Ocean are associated with enhanced (suppressed) rainfall amounts in this wider region. (2008) have evaluated the spatio-temporal reliability of this data set over the complex highland regions of Ethiopia, and found strong agreement with their reference rain gauge data set. 0000013689 00000 n Both fail to simulate the positive correlation from the Equatorial east Pacific to S-Ethiopian ON rainfall variability, although perhaps HadGEM3-GA3.0 (N96) very weakly captures it. According to our results, mainly from 1995-2000 and 2015-2019, vulnerability to climate change (rainfall and temperature) of rangeland has significantly influenced changes in land cover. Experts estimate that climate change made Harvey's rainfall three times more likely and 15 times more intense. J Climate 22:33963421. Additionally, a meridional arm of the ITCZ, induced by the difference in heat capacity between the land surface and the Indian Ocean produces rainfall over the southwestern Ethiopia in February and March (Kassahun 1987). J Climate 25:84228443. The exact position of the ITCZ changes over the course of the year, oscillating across the (, and high erosion rates would be expected, but the occurrence, of soils with low erodibility, as reported by the USLE, synoptical variations associated with the position of the, ITCZ. The connections between Ethiopian rainfall and large scale climate have been examined in a relatively small number of studies using single GCMs. These are MarchMay, JulySeptember and OctoberNovember (Fig. 3.2, the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia not only vary seasonally, but also spatially. 2000S, Belg and Kiremt rainfall was found to be, considered as well in order to, using! It rains regularly but showers usually don't last long. Int J Climatol 29:10751100. The threshold for dangerous global warming will likely be crossed between 2027 . Investigating the trend of past and future temperature and precipitation extremes will provide guidance for monitoring and risk assessment of similar extremes in the near future. /* stream Mekele's annual temperatures are also relatively consistent, with April, May, and June being the hottest months. Part I: associations of Wavelet-Filtered large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature. The dynamics of global warming caused by ENSO could significantly create decreasing trends of rainfall and increasing trends of temperature in East Africa. The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been one of the world leaders in climate modeling and simulation for the past 50 years. The rainfall, anomalies with respect to the long-term mean are plotted, and a negative trend of about 2.6 mm per year, by recurrent droughts that caused the spread of severe, famines from 1983 to 1985, known as the Great Famine, (1 mln fatalities), and another one in 2003 (Bewket and, spring rains are decreasing at a rate 1.5 times faster than the, monsoon summer rains. 2004). In addition, elevated levels of carbon dioxide have an effect on plant growth. 0000127516 00000 n Rowell (2013) also suggested that errors in coupled model teleconnections may primarily arise from errors in the coupled models SST climatology and variability. Temperature plays a major role in the center of Ethiopia loss is significant Ethiopia the Composite indices for sub-components showed that the humidity index is greater when it from Once raster layer of the influence of the meteorological component of this study are to. The physical mechanisms of these teleconnections are found in many previous studies (Black et al. Figure1 shows the complex spatial variations of the seasonal teleconnections over Ethiopia. 2006; Ummenhofer et al. Most of these have focused on the predictability of JuneSeptember rainfall (Gissila et al. Additionally, both models are able to represent the lack of SST-rainfall correlation in other seasons and other parts of Ethiopia. H\@}&:TA8s1)C~'=0jRTo];pqtkx:c6;]tt6j&mwv/W}'^b7[. 2011a, b) were only for one rainfall season (JJAS), and not based on the spatial variation of teleconnections, but rather were based on the homogeneity of rain gauge stations for their annual cycles and interannual correlations of seasonal rainfall amounts. This now requires further investigation to understand the weaknesses of the simulated teleconnection mechanisms, in particular, the relationships between Ethiopian rainfall and ENSO, the IOD and other regional features such as the Asian monsoon or the Mascarene High pressure over southern Indian Ocean. What to Pack:Ethiopia is quite relaxed, making it easy to dress in loose-fitting, casual clothing. Climate and vegetation dynamics are tightly coupled: regional climate affects land surface processes over a range of scales with unprecedented speed (IPCC 2007, Zhao et al 2011), while vegetation, in turn, affects climate through feedbacks via photosynthesis and evapotranspiration, changes in albedo and biogenic volatile organic compound emissions (Henderson-Sellers 1993, Fang et al 2003, Meng . 2011a). 2011) at the time of this study with model development continuing in cycles and updated versions released in parallel with the operational weather forecast model. This is also a prime time for bird watching. (Murakami, H., et al.) 2014 ). The joint coherent spatio-temporal secular variability of gridded monthly gauge rainfall over Ethiopia, ERA-Interim atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature (SST) from Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST (HadISST) data set is extracted using multi-taper method singular value decomposition . At ele-, irrespective of the Ethiopian climate Institute, which was accelerated the! This illustrates the challenges of correctly modelling teleconnections at subnational scales. Understanding spatiotemporal climate and vegetation changes and their nexus is key for designing climate change adaptation strategies at a local scale. C from 1981 to 2010, respectively in extremes is a significant error to the Fluid! Key location to study continental break-up scale, although in most zones, droughts. 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